Risk-weighted Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo can now incorporate the risk register so the forecast accounts for "what if these risks fire?" not just task duration uncertainty.
Setup:
1. Open the Risks tab
2. For each open risk, set an **Impact (days)** value — how many days the project end slips if the risk materialises
3. Make sure the **Likelihood** is set (low / medium / high)
How it works:
• Each trial in the simulator independently rolls whether each open risk fires (probability mapped from likelihood: low=10%, medium=35%, high=70%)
• If a risk fires, its impact days are added to that trial's project end
• 1000 trials → P50 / P80 / P95 finish dates that include the risk pressure
The Monte Carlo card on Overview shows "1000 trials over N PERT-estimated tasks + M weighted risks" so you know what's contributing to the forecast.
Use this for board-level conversations: "If our top three risks fire, we have an 80% probability of finishing by [P80 date], not [authored end]." That's a much more honest answer than ignoring risk.